ABSTRACT
Media freedom is widely recognized as a cornerstone of democratic governance, yet its determinants remain complex and multifaceted. This study examines the institutional and structural factors that shape press freedom across European democracies, with particular attention to nonlinear relationships and threshold effects. Using data from internationally recognized indices – including the World Press Freedom Index (WPFI), Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Rule of Law Index, and Freedom of Expression indicators, we apply a Random Forest regression model combined with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to identify key predictors and their interactions. The authors findings reveal that media freedom is not influenced by a single factor but emerges from the synergistic interplay of multiple democratic pillars. The most significant predictors are the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Rule of Law (RuleLaw), and Freedom of Expression (ExpInfor), which together account for approximately 75% of the variance in WPFI scores. Critically, authors identify specific threshold values, such as CPI > 55, RuleLaw > 0.65, and ExpInfor > 8.0, beyond which the impact of these factors accelerates sharply. This suggests that incremental reforms may yield limited results until certain institutional maturity levels are achieved. Contrary to expectations, economic indicators such as GDP per capita and political stability play only a supporting role, while media market pluralism exhibits a negative correlation with press freedom, indicating that quantitative diversity does not guarantee editorial independence without robust legal and institutional safeguards. SHAP interaction analysis further demonstrates that the influence of each variable is highly conditional on the presence of other democratic factors, underscoring the systemic nature of media freedom. These results have important implications for policymakers: sustainable improvements in press freedom require comprehensive, coordinated reforms that strengthen the rule of law, reduce corruption, and protect freedom of expression simultaneously. Isolated interventions are unlikely to produce lasting change. The study contributes to the growing literature on media systems by offering an empirically grounded, data-driven framework for understanding the institutional architecture that underpins free and independent journalism in democratic societies.
KEY WORDS
Corruption Perception. Democratic Institutions. Freedom of Expression. Media Freedom. Rule of Law.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.34135/mlar-26-01-10
Key Pillars Of Media Freedom: The Strength of Institutions and Thresholds in European Democracies © 2026 by Soňa
Chovanová Supeková, Beáta Stehlíková, Ľudovít Hajduk, Michala Lopatková, UCM Trnava is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International license.